Pierre-Simon Laplace Philosophical Essay on Probabilities: Translated from the fifth French edition of 1825 With Notes by the Translator

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Springer Science & Business Media, 16 mars 1998 - 270 pages
Pierre-Simon Laplace (1749-1827) is remembered amoung probabilitists today particularly for his "Theorie analytique des probabilites", published in 1812. The "Essai philosophique dur les probabilites" is his introduction for the second edition of this work. Here Laplace provided a popular exposition on his "Theorie". The "Essai", based on a lecture on probability given by Laplace in 1794, underwent sweeping changes, almost doubling in size, in the various editions published during Laplace's lifetime. Translations of various editions in different languages have apeared over the years. The only English translation of 1902 reads awkwardly today. This is a thorough and modern translation based on the recent re-issue, with its voluminous notes, of the fifth edition of 1826, with preface by Rene Thom and postscript by Bernard Bru. In the second part of the book, the reader is provided with an extensive commentary by the translator including valuable histographical and mathematical remarks and various proofs.
 

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Table des matières

PHILOSOPHICAL ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES
1
On probability
2
General principles of the probability calculus
6
On expectation
11
On analytical methods in the probability calculus
14
Applications of the probability calculus
33
On unknown inequalities that may exist between supposedly equal chances
34
On laws of probability resulting from the indefinite repetition of events
36
On elections and decisions of assemblies
74
On the probability of judicial decisions
77
On tables of mortality and the mean duration of life marriages and associations in general
81
On the benefits of institutions that depend on the probability of events
86
On illusions in the estimation of probabilities
91
On various approaches to certainty
112
Historical note on the probability calculus
117
NOTES
125

Application of the probability calculus to natural philosophy
43
Application of the probability calculus to the moral sciences
61
On the means of the results of a large number of observations
62
On the probability of testimony
65
Editions of the Essai
225
BIBLIOGRAPHY
227
GLOSSARY
253
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Page 233 - MORGAN -AN ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES, And on their Application to Life Contingencies and Insurance Offices.

À propos de l'auteur (1998)

Laplace's scientific and mathematical interests include differential equations, celestial mechanics, theoretical astronomy, geodesy, probability, and statistics. Laplace also was active in French politics during the French Revolution. He is credited with naming July 14 as Bastille Day, a French national holiday. Laplace's major contributions include the establishment of Bayesian statistics, the Laplace transform, combinatorics, the theory of the incomplete beta function, the theory of generating functions, the theory of errors, the proof of least squares, and asymptotic theory. Laplace also was a leading French educator, helping establish the Ecole Normale and Ecole Polytechnique.

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